Full DCF Valuation Model for Extended DEX
Starknet Hybrid Perp DEX (pre-TGE) – Adapted from Decentralisedco HYPE Framework (March 2026)
Current Key Metrics (March 2026)
- Annualized protocol fees/revenue run-rate: $33.3M
- 30d volume: $12B (annualized ~$144B)
- Open Interest (OI): ~$295M
- TVL: $197M
- Token status: Pre-TGE (expected H1 2026)
- ~30% community airdrop allocation; planned revenue buybacks (~50% of fees)
DCF Methodology
Enterprise Value calculated as:
EV₀ = Σ (Rev_t / (1+r)^t) [t=1 to 3] + (Rev₃ × Terminal Multiple) / (1+r)³
Key adaptations vs. Hyperliquid framework:
- No meaningful tradfi TAM capture (0% HIP-3 equivalent)
- Higher risk: 25–30% discount rate, 10–15x terminal multiple
- Crypto-perps baseline growth only
Valuation Scenarios
| Scenario |
Revenue Path (2026 / 2027 / 2028, $M) |
Discount Rate |
Terminal Multiple |
Implied EV Today ($M) |
Implied TGE FDV Range |
| Bear |
35 / 40 / 45 |
30% |
10x |
276 |
$250–400M |
| Base |
45 / 70 / 100 |
28% |
12x |
698 |
$700M–1.2B |
| Bull |
60 / 120 / 200 |
25% |
15x |
1,763 |
$1.5–2.5B+ |
| Outrageous |
80 / 180 / 350 |
25% |
15x |
3,046 |
Highly aspirational |
Key Conclusions
- Base case fair value: $700M–1.2B today
- ~21× current annualized revenue (reasonable for growth-stage perp DEX)
- Strong execution but lacks Hyperliquid's liquidity moat & permissionless custom markets
- Positive tokenomics: revenue buybacks + community-heavy supply
- Risks: competition, Starknet adoption, regulatory overhang
- No material path to $1.74T tradfi TAM migration
Important: This is NOT financial advice. Crypto markets and protocol metrics are highly volatile.
Tokenomics, unlocks, fees and volumes can change rapidly. Always DYOR and verify latest on-chain data (DefiLlama, official channels, etc.).